In an era of climate and geopolitical crises, resilience has become a vital agricultural metric.
For wheat — a staple feeding over 3 billion people — resilience means survival.
But how can it be measured?
From Yield to System Thinking
Traditional metrics like average yield are no longer enough.
A resilient system can absorb shocks, adapt, and maintain both production and livelihoods.
Institutions such as the FAO, JRC, and IPCC have therefore developed the Wheat Resilience Index (WRI) — a composite indicator integrating climate, environment, economy, and social factors.
How the Index Works
The WRI evaluates four dimensions:
- Climate: rainfall variability, heat stress, and temperature trends (FAO-CLIM, EDORA data).
- Environment: soil erosion, water availability, fertilizer footprint.
- Economy: input dependency, price volatility, income diversification.
- Social-Institutional: farmer education, cooperative presence, policy support.
Each receives a score (0–1), creating comparative maps of resilience across countries and regions.
Key Findings
According to FAO, JRC, and ISMEA (2025):
- Western Europe & North America: high resilience (0.7–0.8).
- North Africa & Middle East: vulnerable (0.3–0.5).
- South Asia: uneven (0.4–0.7).
- Italy: medium-high (0.68), but drought-prone in southern wheat zones.
EDORA (2025) projects a 15% decline in Mediterranean resilience by 2040 due to rising temperatures and lower rainfall.
Why It Matters
The WRI helps:
- compare agricultural systems across time and space;
- guide policy and investment toward vulnerable regions;
- integrate resilience metrics into EU eco-schemes and carbon credits.
It turns resilience into an actionable tool — not just an ideal.
A Cultural Shift
Resilience is more than a number.
It’s a mindset — about cooperation, diversity, and anticipation.
As the IPCC (2023) puts it, “resilience is the new productivity.”
For wheat, measuring it is the first step toward building it.
Scientific and Institutional References
- FAO (2025). Global Wheat Resilience Assessment Report.
- JRC (2025). Agricultural Vulnerability and Resilience Framework.
- IPCC (2023). AR6 – Food Systems and Climate Adaptation.
- EDORA (2025). Drought and Wheat Resilience Metrics.
- ISMEA (2025). Agri-Food Resilience in Italy.