For more than ten thousand years, wheat has walked alongside humankind.
It was the foundation of the first civilizations, fueled empires and wars, and still provides about 20% of global calories.
But the challenge of the coming decades is not just to produce more wheat — it is to grow it better on a planet facing climate shocks, demographic pressure, and rapid technological change.
The future of wheat will depend on a delicate balance between science, sustainability, and governance.
An Uncertain Horizon: Rising Demand, Shrinking Resources
According to the FAO–OECD Agricultural Outlook (2024), global wheat demand will increase by 12–15% by 2035, driven largely by Asia and Africa, where populations are growing and diets are diversifying — from bread to pasta to noodles.
However, arable land is shrinking, and the climate is becoming less predictable.
The IPCC (2021) warns that for each additional degree of global warming, global wheat yields could drop by 4–6%, especially in arid and Mediterranean regions.
This means that to feed a population expected to exceed 9 billion people by 2050, we must increase productivity without exhausting natural resources.
The Digital Revolution in the Fields
Tomorrow’s agriculture will be increasingly digital and connected.
Drones, sensors, satellites, and artificial intelligence are transforming the way wheat is sown, irrigated, and harvested.
Precision agriculture already enables farmers to deliver water, fertilizers, and pesticides only where needed — cutting costs and waste.
The next frontier is predictive agriculture: AI systems that process real-time climate, soil, and crop data to forecast yields, disease risks, and nutrient needs.
The Joint Research Centre (JRC, 2025) estimates that widespread adoption of smart farming technologies could cut greenhouse gas emissions from cereal systems by 25–30% and improve water-use efficiency by 20%.
Genetics and Biotechnology: The Grains of Tomorrow
Following the full sequencing of the wheat genome (IWGSC, 2018), the crop’s genetic research has entered a new era.
Gene-editing tools like CRISPR/Cas allow scientists to fine-tune or switch off specific genes without introducing foreign DNA — creating varieties that are more resilient to drought, rust diseases, and temperature stress.
Current research focuses on:
- Low-gluten or hypoallergenic wheat,
- “Climate-smart” varieties with shorter growth cycles and lower water requirements,
- Deep-rooted plants that store more carbon and improve soil structure.
According to ICARDA (2024), combining pangenomics and genomic selection could speed up wheat breeding programs by over 40%, allowing faster adaptation to changing environments.
Circular Economy and Carbon Farming
The wheat of the future will also be an energy and environmental resource.
By-products from the wheat supply chain — bran, straw, and chaff — are being reimagined as:
- biomaterials for sustainable packaging or construction,
- bioenergy and biogas feedstocks,
- organic soil amendments that restore fertility and store carbon.
At the same time, carbon farming — paying farmers to capture carbon in soils or reduce emissions — is gaining traction.
The European Commission is developing common certification standards to integrate agricultural carbon credits into voluntary carbon markets by 2030.
Governance and Cooperation: The Key to Food Security
Technology alone will not secure the future of wheat — governance will.
As agriculture becomes more data-driven, the global system must ensure transparency, equity, and inclusiveness, protecting smallholder farmers and local economies.
New partnerships such as the FAO–WFP–IFAD Food Security Coalition and the Partnership on Sustainable Wheat Systems (2024) aim to promote innovation exchange between the Global North and South.
Without inclusive governance, technological progress could deepen inequalities instead of closing them.
Wheat as a Measure of Planetary Health
In the decades ahead, wheat will serve as a barometer of planetary health.
Tracking its yields, ecological footprint, and soil impact will help us understand the state of global agroecosystems.
This is precisely the vision behind EcoWheataly: integrating data science, sustainability, and communication to guide the transition toward a more resilient and just agricultural model.
Wheat is both our heritage and our laboratory.
As the FAO reminds us, “Each grain is a balance between nature and society.”
Its future — like the planet’s — depends on the choices we make today.
Sources:
- FAO & OECD (2024). Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033.
- IPCC (2021). Climate Change and Land: Summary for Policymakers.
- JRC – Joint Research Centre (2025). Smart Agriculture and Climate Mitigation Scenarios.
- ICARDA (2024). Harnessing Wheat Genomic Diversity for Climate Adaptation.
- European Commission (2024). Carbon Farming Initiative and Sustainable Food Systems Framework.
- IWGSC (2018). Reference Genome of Bread Wheat.
- FAO (2025). Global Food Security and Innovation Partnerships Report.