However, the growing threat of desertification is compromising the production stability of this strategic crop, with direct implications for food availability and global markets.
Desertification, defined by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas due to climate factors and human activities, currently covers over 2 billion hectares and directly affects 3.2 billion people (UNCCD, 2022). It is one of the most serious threats to agricultural systems, and wheat, grown in large semi-arid areas, is particularly exposed.
Direct impacts on cereal production
In the main grain-producing areas at risk—the Mediterranean, the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia, and parts of Australia—land degradation is already showing tangible effects:
- Loss of soil fertility: The depletion of organic matter reduces the soil’s capacity to retain water and nutrients, crucial for wheat in areas with limited rainfall. According to the FAO (2021), the loss of organic matter in agricultural soils can reduce yields by up to 25%.
- Erosion and compaction: In some areas of the Maghreb, wind and water erosion remove 25-40 tons of soil per hectare each year, drastically reducing arable land (FAO, 2019).
- Salinization: An increasingly widespread phenomenon in arid irrigated regions. In Central Asia, over 30% of agricultural land is affected by increasing salinity, with direct impacts on wheat germination and root development (FAO & ICARDA, 2020).
Indirect effects and synergies with climate change
Desertification amplifies the pressures already exerted by climate change. Higher temperatures and irregular rainfall exacerbate soil degradation, creating a vicious cycle: degraded soils retain less water, increasing the vulnerability of crops to drought and heatwaves. The IPCC (2022) highlights that, in semi-arid regions, wheat yields could decline by up to 50% by 2050 if adaptation measures are not adopted.
In India and Pakistan, for example, areas characterized by desertification have seen a steady decline in cereal productivity over the past twenty years, with estimated reductions of between 15 and 20% compared to undegraded land (Nature Sustainability, 2021).
Adaptation and resilience strategies
To counter these trends, research and agricultural practices are identifying innovative solutions:
- Sustainable soil management: Techniques such as conservation tillage, vegetation cover, and the return to crop rotation help reduce erosion and nutrient loss.
- Breeding: Drought- and salinity-tolerant wheat varieties developed by ICARDA and CIMMYT have already shown yield increases of 20–30% in marginal settings.
- Efficient irrigation: Drip irrigation systems and rainwater harvesting techniques optimize the use of limited water resources, reducing pressure on aquifers and the risk of salinization.
- Agroforestry: The inclusion of tree species in cereal systems helps reduce erosion and desertification, while also improving microclimate and fertility.
A global challenge
According to the FAO, desertification could reduce global cereal production by over 16% by 2050 if sustainable soil management policies are not implemented (FAO, 2021). The challenge is not limited to the driest countries: in an interconnected global market, productivity losses in key areas such as the Mediterranean basin or Central Asia translate into price instability and food security risks elsewhere.
To address this crisis, integrated strategies are needed: agricultural policies that incentivize soil regeneration, investment in research, and support for farmers. The resilience of wheat – and global food security – will depend on the ability to regenerate soils, transforming desertification from a threat into an opportunity to innovate agricultural systems.
Sources:
- FAO (2019). The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture.
- FAO (2021). The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture.
- FAO & ICARDA (2020). Managing salinity in agriculture.
- UNCCD (2022). Global Land Outlook 2.
- IPCC (2022). Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
- Nature Sustainability (2021). Land degradation impacts on crop productivity in South Asia.