International grain trade is largely dependent on a complex and vulnerable maritime network. Routes connecting major global producers (such as Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, and North America) to markets in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa are often exposed to geopolitical, climatic, and logistical factors that affect their constancy and cost.
Major Maritime Chokepoints
According to analyses by Chatham House, over 55% of global grain exports pass through maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca, Suez, and Bab al-Mandab, up from 42% in 2000. This is largely due to the growth in grain and maize trade from Black Sea countries to East Asia and East Africa.
Currently, around 17% of maritime wheat exports from the EU, Russia, and Ukraine to Asia and East Africa pass through the Suez Canal or Bab al-Mandab.
Geopolitical Risks and Route Changes
Since late 2023, Houthi militia attacks in the Bab al-Mandab Strait have led many shipping companies (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) to avoid the Red Sea route, opting instead to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour adds 10–15 days to voyages, with transport costs rising by $6–8 per ton and bunker fuel usage increasing transport costs by 20%.
Meanwhile, the Panama Canal has faced severe drought, drastically reducing traffic. Water scarcity has limited the passage of bulk carriers, forcing many U.S. routes to divert either toward West Asia or around the Cape of Good Hope, again increasing time and logistical costs.
The Black Sea and Humanitarian Corridors
The disruption of agricultural trade via the Black Sea caused by the Russian invasion in 2022 led to the establishment of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a UN–Turkey–Russia–Ukraine agreement that, for one year (July 2022–July 2023), allowed monitored grain shipments from Odesa to the Mediterranean through safe corridors. Without this deal, many of Ukraine’s exports would have been drastically reduced.
Trade Dynamics and Network Resilience
A 2025 study on cargo transport networks reveals that the maritime grain network is marked by high complexity and fast adaptability. After the geopolitical shocks caused by the war in Ukraine, the structure of trade flows shifted significantly, with new emerging ports and reoriented shipping patterns.
Logistical Solutions and Redundancy: The Case of Baltic Ports
Russia is expanding port infrastructure in the Baltic Sea (e.g., Vysotsky and Lugaport) to access other markets and reduce reliance on the fragile Black Sea route. These terminals could handle up to 15 million tons of wheat annually, offering strategic alternative capacity for exports to Africa and Asia.
Concrete Impacts
- Increased transport costs, up to +24% for routes from Black Sea exporters to Asia, due to detours around Africa.
- Delivery delays (10–15 additional days for alternative routes compared to Suez).
- Higher insurance premiums, in some cases up to +250%, meaning traffic is often uninsured or underinsured.
Grain shipping routes are essential to ensure global food supply, but they are highly sensitive to geopolitical, climatic, and logistical events. The current crises in the Red Sea, Panama Canal, and Black Sea highlight how much system resilience depends on the diversification of export routes and the adaptability of ports and shipping companies.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial to address future challenges to global food security.
Sources:
– Chokepoints and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade | 2. Chokepoints in Global Food Trade
– WTO | 2024 News items – Surge in wheat shipments bypassing Suez Canal, WTO Wheat Dashboard finds
– Trade disruptions in Red Sea cast shadows on global grain trade and food security | Miller Magazine
– RATIN | News | How maritime trade disruptions are hurting global food security
– Risk and resilience in global grain trade | International Chamber of Shipping